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3-Circle Investments
3-Circle Investment Process: Company + Industry + Macro Analysis.
By Craig Shapiro · Launched 6 months ago
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End of an Era. Come Join Me on the Other Side
After a 6 month period as Substacker, I am now taking my musings over to my own Slack Channel to provide outsourced macro consulting services and trade ideas to the masses at LaDuc Trading.
Craig Shapiro
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End of an Era. Come Join Me on the Other Side
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Jerry is not Paul
While Powell fashions himself to be Volcker 2.0, structural differences in the labor market today vs. back in the late 1970s are a major blind spot…
Craig Shapiro
Jun 22
9
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Jerry is not Paul
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Will He or Won't He?
Powell speaks today. Will he wear his traditional dovish cap to buy more time for inflation to naturally fall or will he go for the "win" to stop the…
Craig Shapiro
May 17
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Will He or Won't He?
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In Search of a Bottom
As long as Fed remains uncertain, the market will be uncertain which means risk-off. But this down move could be running out of time over next few…
Craig Shapiro
May 12
3
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In Search of a Bottom
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Powell the Volatility Dampener...But for How Long?
Covering risk-off bets was the right idea ahead of Powell but now that he's finished, and financial conditions have eased, he will soon have to hawk it…
Craig Shapiro
May 4
7
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Powell the Volatility Dampener...But for How Long?
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Portfolio Update - Some Capitulation Observed. Reducing some exposures ahead of Fed Meeting
Our tactical signals are showing cross-asset consternation to an extreme. We are covering some risk off bets ahead of Wednesday but still remain…
Craig Shapiro
May 2
3
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Portfolio Update - Some Capitulation Observed. Reducing some exposures ahead of Fed Meeting
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Portfolio Update - Looking for Signs of Capitulation to Cover Shorts into Fed meeting
$/cnh breakout was great catalyst to cut reflation bets and press the risk off book. While the Fed still has a lot of tightening to do, we'll use…
Craig Shapiro
Apr 27
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Portfolio Update - Looking for Signs of Capitulation to Cover Shorts into Fed meeting
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$/CNH moves accelerating. Need to cut reflation bets
Historical muscle memory here has seen big moves in $/cnh before and this has me concerned about pace of cyclical growth/reflation. We are hedging our…
Craig Shapiro
Apr 21
4
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$/CNH moves accelerating. Need to cut reflation bets
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