3-Circle Investments

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The Fed Needs to Introduce Two-Sided Risk to Its Next Move to Slay Inflation
In order to bring inflation back down to 2%, the Fed has to be as willing to raise rates as they are to cut them. For now, the asymmetry of its policy…
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Craig Shapiro
My Podcast Interview with The Bitcoin Layer
I discussed $ hegemony, US/China relations and the reason Gold is breaking out with Nik Bhatia
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Craig Shapiro
The Fed Is Not Your Friend
Our Founding Fathers had some choice words for the Central Bank. We would be wise to heed their warning.
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Craig Shapiro
5
Janet Goes to Beijing
As Secretary Yellen heads to China to discuss economic policies with China's leadership, it's important to look back at history for what may become of…
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Craig Shapiro
2
Isn't It Ironic, Don't You Think?
Part 2 of My Hypothesis on How the US is Losing US$/UST Hegemony
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Craig Shapiro
2

March 2024

Slowly, Then All At Once
Part 1 of My Hypothesis on How the US is Losing US$/UST Hegemony
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Craig Shapiro
Powell Needs to Stop Gaslighting Markets About Financial Conditions
The Fed's own indicators of financial conditions show a drastic loosening of conditions over the last 6 months, suggesting policy is not restrictive…
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Craig Shapiro
The Gladys Knight Strategy for Fed Policy Making
The Fed is in the "Buying Time" business as they try to achieve their dual mandate while maintaining the primacy of their unspoken "third" mandate to…
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Craig Shapiro
Occam's Razor Explanation for Powell's Dovishness
The only explanation for Powell's dovish press conference was to elevate the Fed's primary mandate of assuring the stability of the US Treasury market.
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Craig Shapiro
Inside Baseball Version Of the March Fed Meeting
TL/DR: Fed will remove cuts for 2024 and 2025 and raise the neutral rate in an effort to tame animal spirits, re-anchor inflation expectations and push…
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Craig Shapiro
Animal Spirits are Testing the Fed's Patience. Will Powell Smack Them on Wednesday?
Risk asset markets will continue to rally until the point at which the Fed gets uncomfortable that inflation expectations and actual inflation are…
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Craig Shapiro
Unanimous Consent Needed to Cut Rates?
In an election year, Powell needs all Fed voters to start a rate cutting cycle. As a consensus building Fed chair, he can't go with dissents. And right…
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Craig Shapiro
© 2024 Craig Shapiro
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