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Updated Thoughts: Payroll Report to Bring Market Back to the Fed's View on Economy. That's Not a Good Thing for Risk
Friday's payroll report likely to quickly bring the market back to realization that fighting the Fed still remains a fool's game
Craig Shapiro
Feb 5
5
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Updated Thoughts: Payroll Report to Bring Market Back to the Fed's View on Economy. That's Not a Good Thing for Risk
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January 2023
Job Cuts Alert: Why More Companies Will Conduct Layoffs in 2023
The Federal Reserve wants American companies to keep cutting jobs
Craig Shapiro
Jan 19
4
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Job Cuts Alert: Why More Companies Will Conduct Layoffs in 2023
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Stock Market Predictions 2023: Why the Fed Still Doesn’t Care About Wall Street
Stocks will struggle until the Federal Reserve adds liquidity back to the markets
Craig Shapiro
Jan 10
1
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Stock Market Predictions 2023: Why the Fed Still Doesn’t Care About Wall Street
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December 2022
Gloomy Look Ahead to 2023
Without liquidity coming, expect rough start for risk assets to start the New Year.
Craig Shapiro
Dec 29, 2022
7
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Gloomy Look Ahead to 2023
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November 2022
To Step Down or Not to Step Down? That is the Question
Fed has another important decision tomorrow and the market is running with the idea that they are ready to "step down" the hiking path. As Lee Corso…
Craig Shapiro
Nov 1, 2022
4
3
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To Step Down or Not to Step Down? That is the Question
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September 2022
Sticking with the Bearish View
Expect risk asset markets to make new lows in the coming weeks as the Fed pushes to get ahead of the market on a tightening agenda to stomp out…
Craig Shapiro
Sep 21, 2022
5
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Sticking with the Bearish View
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August 2022
Energy is the New Monetary Policy
A country's cost of capital and FX value is driving by its proximity to upstream resources thanks to Putin. Out with the central bankers, in with the…
Craig Shapiro
Aug 24, 2022
3
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Energy is the New Monetary Policy
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July 2022
Bearish thoughts into the Weekend
The gap between growth deterioration and Fed's ability to address it is too wide for risk markets at this point. Expect Fed pushback next week to market…
Craig Shapiro
Jul 22, 2022
4
2
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Bearish thoughts into the Weekend
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Quick update - Get ready to sell risk on hot CPI
Pushing out the time toward Fed pausing will again be negative for risk assets
Craig Shapiro
Jul 12, 2022
8
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Quick update - Get ready to sell risk on hot CPI
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End of an Era. Come Join Me on the Other Side
After a 6 month period as Substacker, I am now taking my musings over to my own Slack Channel to provide outsourced macro consulting services and trade…
Craig Shapiro
Jul 1, 2022
4
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End of an Era. Come Join Me on the Other Side
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June 2022
Jerry is not Paul
While Powell fashions himself to be Volcker 2.0, structural differences in the labor market today vs. back in the late 1970s are a major blind spot…
Craig Shapiro
Jun 22, 2022
9
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Jerry is not Paul
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May 2022
Will He or Won't He?
Powell speaks today. Will he wear his traditional dovish cap to buy more time for inflation to naturally fall or will he go for the "win" to stop the…
Craig Shapiro
May 17, 2022
2
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Will He or Won't He?
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