After a 6 month period as Substacker, I am now taking my musings over to my own Slack Channel to provide outsourced macro consulting services and trade…
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While Powell fashions himself to be Volcker 2.0, structural differences in the labor market today vs. back in the late 1970s are a major blind spot…
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Powell speaks today. Will he wear his traditional dovish cap to buy more time for inflation to naturally fall or will he go for the "win" to stop the…
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As long as Fed remains uncertain, the market will be uncertain which means risk-off. But this down move could be running out of time over next few…
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Covering risk-off bets was the right idea ahead of Powell but now that he's finished, and financial conditions have eased, he will soon have to hawk it…
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Our tactical signals are showing cross-asset consternation to an extreme. We are covering some risk off bets ahead of Wednesday but still remain…
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$/cnh breakout was great catalyst to cut reflation bets and press the risk off book. While the Fed still has a lot of tightening to do, we'll use…
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Historical muscle memory here has seen big moves in $/cnh before and this has me concerned about pace of cyclical growth/reflation. We are hedging our…
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With 5y5y inflation expectations breaking out to new highs, the Fed's preferred scorecard shows they aren't taking the inflation breakout seriously…
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With the Fed tightening financial conditions to prevent inflation expectations from becoming further entrenched, we are positioned fairly risk off until…
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Sorry for the headache but Russia seeking to price its energy exports in gold has the potential to be highly disruptive for global currency markets…
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The Fed's gradual rate hike cycle is too slow to appropriately deal with inflation. Awakening the market vigilantes is a bad idea. Sell US$ vs hard…
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