China and Russia have weaponized the supply chain. Inflationary impacts will stick with us for longer than the Fed is willing to admit. Inflationary bust scenario is possible.
You are totally correct on all points but I have learned that the world is 2 years behind where logic gets you. In 2018 I wrote about energy companies paying down debt, ramping down and letting prices hike to improve profitability. I was laughed out of the room until I was right. In March 2020 I wrote that COVID is never going away, vaccines aren’t effective on mutations and it impacted the sick and the old. Last night on the SOTU Biden said what I said 2 years ago. And now - I talk about climate change as being parallel in all ways to the COVID crisis. It’s not a crisis. It’s manufactured. And there are trade offs we must accept. I fear you are right on all fronts but it will take longer to get there.
I agree with you and disagree w Marc Chandlers' assessment of the strength of the dollar hegemony. Our world runs on carbon and we all know how difficult it is to ramp up e&p (upstream development). If you look at where the 100mbpd is derived, a significant amount is generated from autocratic states. Many of these actors do not want and are conducting trade outside of the dollar. Energy has become weaponized. And the dearth of capex spending is exacerbating already tight supplies.
You are totally correct on all points but I have learned that the world is 2 years behind where logic gets you. In 2018 I wrote about energy companies paying down debt, ramping down and letting prices hike to improve profitability. I was laughed out of the room until I was right. In March 2020 I wrote that COVID is never going away, vaccines aren’t effective on mutations and it impacted the sick and the old. Last night on the SOTU Biden said what I said 2 years ago. And now - I talk about climate change as being parallel in all ways to the COVID crisis. It’s not a crisis. It’s manufactured. And there are trade offs we must accept. I fear you are right on all fronts but it will take longer to get there.
Enjoyed the article, would like to see a Part 2 towards the back half of March. I'm a fan of Platinum at the moment.
I agree with you and disagree w Marc Chandlers' assessment of the strength of the dollar hegemony. Our world runs on carbon and we all know how difficult it is to ramp up e&p (upstream development). If you look at where the 100mbpd is derived, a significant amount is generated from autocratic states. Many of these actors do not want and are conducting trade outside of the dollar. Energy has become weaponized. And the dearth of capex spending is exacerbating already tight supplies.