Trying out this Notes thing
I'm hearing the buzz on Notes so figured I'd start to engage.
Tomorrow CPI day. Get your popcorn. Vix compressed into the event for first time in quite some time as most folks are expecting lower inflation and thinking the Fed is done after May so this has become an irrelevant print. I think there is risk here. If we get another hot print, there will be some who start to think about what the world looked like when Powell spoke to congress in early March and before the "banking crisis." That was a world of terminal rate above 5.5% and no cuts this year. A strong core services ex housing print will be a trouble spot for the Fed. When combined with gasoline prices that are seasonally improving, we run the risk of moving up inflation expectations again. That would force Fed into more hawkish language. Extending the timeline to more liquidity is bearish. Let's see.